Predictions

Labour

Labour are expected to capitalise on the anger over the coalition’s spending cuts, and make gains across the country.

The party will make its largest gains in England, followed by Wales. A YouGov poll of voting intentions puts Labour 4 points ahead of the Conservatives and 25 points ahead of the Lib Dems in England:

Con 34%(-4), Lab 38%(+16), Lib Dem 13%(-11) and others 15%

They are in a similarly strong position in Wales:

Welsh constituency: Con 21%, Lab 47%, Lib Dem 8%, Plaid 17%

Welsh regional: Con 20%, Lab 45%, Lib Dem 8%, Plaid 16%

Compared to the last Welsh Assembly elections in 2007, Labour are up by 15 points. On a uniform swing this would leave them with around 33 seats in the 60 seat assembly, an overall majority.However some predict they will just fall short of a majority, in which case the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru will look to form a coalition with them.

In Scotland, however, polls and party intelligence show a swing towards the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP). Alex Salmond’s party will make gains from the Lib Dems mainly, but Labour will also lose seats to the SNP.

A TNS-BRMB poll for Scottish TV predicts:

Holyrood constituency: CON 15%(-2), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 10%(-7), SNP 45%(+11)
Holyrood regional: CON 16%(+2), LAB 25%(-4), LDEM 9%(-2), SNP 38%(+7), Green 8%(+4)

If, as predicted, they take control of Sheffield from the Lib Dems, this victory will be particularly symbolic as it is where Nick Clegg’s constituency is.

Conservative

The Conservatives are expected to lose hundreds of councillors, as is typically the case for incumbent parties at local elections, but the losses aren’t expected to be has heavy as those of their coalition partners.

David Cameron’s party will also be able to take some comfort from what is expected to be a strong win for the No camp in today’s referendum on changing the voting system.

Despite Labour expected to make significant gains – estimates vary from between 400-1300 seats – party officials have warned that any collapse in the Lib Dem vote in the south may see Conservatives gain seats.

YouGov found support for the Conservatives in English local elections at 34% (-4), Lab 38% (+16), and Lib Dems 13% (-11).

Lib Dem

The party is expected to ‘take a thrashing’. Estimates on how many seats they will lose range from 400 to 700.

The Lib Dems are expected to do particularly badly in university towns such as York, Lancaster, Norwich, Bristol and Brighton. Some believe students will take revenge on the Lib Dems for breaking their promise to oppose any rise in tuition fees, by withdrawing support en masse.

In England support for the Lib Dems has gone down from 20% to 10% over the last year. Most of its losses will be in the North where support for Labour is witnessing a revival. The Greens may also benefit from declining Lib Dem support.

In Wales the Lib Dems will lose out to Labour, but a yougov poll shows support has fallen here as much as it has elsewhere.

Polls show Lib Dem support in Scotland has halved, to 8%. The shift towards the SNP is particularly great in rural and affluent suburban areas: the traditional Highland and countryside seats that the Lib Dems in Scotland regards as their heartlands.

Seats to watch: courtesy of analysis from Andy Sawford at LGiU

Labour

Bolton was hotly contested last time around when Labour lost overall control.  They remain the largest party and will hope to regain control tomorrow.

Kirklees council is about as hung as it gets, with 19 Conservatives, 24 Labour, 20 Lib Dems and 6 others.  Currently in Labour minority control, they will hope to make gains.  This is always an interesting council to watch. 

Birmingham, the biggest local authority in England, is currently run by a Conservative and Lib Dem coalition.   Labour is already the largest party and will hope to make gains, but the council is likely to remain in no overall control

Bury is split Con 23, Labour 20 and Lib Dems 8.   The arithmetic of the 16 seats up for grabs tomorrow means only the Conservatives could take overall control, but Labour will be hoping to emerge as the largest party. 

Dudley– the Conservatives have a good majority and are likely to hold on to control.  With only a third of seats up for grabs tomorrow Labour would need to make spectacular gains in order to snatch control.  If that happens, it will be one of the stories of the night. 

Leeds switched from a Conservative and Lib Dem coalition to a Labour administration, backed by the Greens last year.  Labour will expect to take outright control tomorrow. 

Oldham – after Labour’s strong showing in the recent parliamentary by-election they will be optimistic about their chances of snatching control from the current Lib Dem and Conservative administration. 

Newcastle is the big fight of the night, with Labour hoping to gain enough seats to win control from the Lib Dems for the first time in many years.  The Lib Dems are defending 16 seats, Labour are defending 9.  Labour would need to make a net gain of 6 seats to win.  This is a nail biter for Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband. 

Sheffield’s current balance is 42 Lib dems, 39 Labour and two others.  Labour is widely expected to make gains here. 

Trafford is Conservative controlled with a comfortable majority but it has been a bell weather council in the past and Labour will be hoping to make inroads. 

Wirral is currently in no overall control with a Conservative and Lib Dem administration.  The Conservatives will hope to remain in the driving seat after tomorrow but Labour could become the largest party.

Wolverhampton is finely balanced and Labour need only gain 1 seat tomorrow to take control from the minority Conservative administration. 

Blackburn with Darwen- Labour will hope to win a handful of seats to gain control

Hull is another big Lib Dem run city that Labour are seeking to win.  Lots of eyes will be on this result. 

North Warwickshire is a Conservative and Labour marginal.  Labour would need to gain only a few seats to snatch control from the Conservatives.

Plymouth is likely to remain Conservative but this is one of Labour’s few strong areas in the South West and they will hope to make some gains.

Thurrock is keenly contested between Labour and the Conservatives.  There is currently a minority Labour administration.  The results here tomorrow will be an indication of whether Labour is recovering ground in the South. 

York is a keenly fought contest between the Lib Dems, who are currently in minority control, and Labour who will hope to make gains. 

Lib Dems

Sheffield: Lib Dem controlled northern outpost & includes Nick Clegg’s Hallam constituency.

Newcastle city council: Lib Dem northern outpost, also vulnerable to a Labour resurgence.  

NB - The Lib Dems face their biggest threat from Labour in the North of England – where they are going all out to woo Lib Dem voters]

If LDs lose Stockport, Hull & Newcastle – all councils where they have a majority of just 3 or 4 seats – they will no longer control local authorities in any of the big northern cities.

Lewes – a council the Lib Dems have held for 20 years. The party needs to lose only one seat to lose its majority.

Bedford mayoral election: expected to be hotly contested between Conservatives & Lib Dems: Lib Dem Dave Hodgson narrowly beat Conservative opponent in a by-election in 2009.

Leeds: finely poised with Labour currently leading an informal coalition, effectively giving them just a one seat majority in the Civic Hall.

Coventry and Warwickshire [6 councils in total]: Labour expected to make a comeback after 13 years in government and will hope to gain 1,000 seats: Conservative-controlled Warwickshire Borough Council one to watch where Labour needs swing of just 3 seats to become largest party. Ed Miliband’s visit there earlier this month indicates it’s one to look out for.

Boothferry [Hull] A Labour win here would start alarm bells ringing with Lib Dems. Lib Dem and ex-Lord Mayor Karen Woods defending her seat.

Westbrook – Lab & Lib Dems embroiled in a war of words with Labour trying to defend Westbrook after narrowly winning it from the Lib Dems last year.

Leicester South – the second biggest city outside of London to elect its mayor. Polls suggest it looks like to be a Labour win with Lib Dems potentially relegated to third. The Deputy PM was there just yesterday hosting a Q&A.

Facts

The proportion of council seats the Lib Dems are contesting has fallen to its lowest since 1999: made their sharpest withdrawals in south-east & north-west.

At the moment the Conservatives control 211 councils, Labour 65 and the Lib Dems 32. There are 82 with no one party in control, 12 with independent councillors and three SNP-controlled councils.

Former Lib Dem leader of Liverpool Council, Warren Bradley, warned weeks ago that the party faced disappearing "into the annals of history", because of coalition policies.

Conservative

Calderdale is a rare Lib Dem and Labour administration.  The council make up is intriguing, with 21 Conservatives, 17 Lib Dems and 10 Labour.  Could the Conservatives snatch control?

Dudley– the Conservatives have a good majority and are likely to hold on to control.  With only a third of seats up for grabs tomorrow Labour would need to make spectacular gains in order to snatch control.  If that happens, it will be one of the stories of the night. 

Solihull is an interesting Conservative and Lib Dem battle, where the Conservatives will be hoping to win overall control.

Bath and N.E Somerset is a prospect for a Conservative gain from NOC. 

Blackpool looks to be comfortably Conservative – they hold 27 seats to Labour’s 12 and the Lib Dems 3.   A change of control here is unlikely but not out of the question

Milton Keynes is currently a Lib Dem minority administration.  For the Conservatives, who did well here in the last General Election, this is one of their best hopes for a council gain. 

South Gloucestershire has a minority Conservative administration.  With all out elections tomorrow they will be hoping to take overall control. 

Telford and Wrekin is a minority Conservative administration and they will be hoping to win majority control.

Windsor and Maidenhead is Eric Pickles favourite council.  The Conservative’s have a comfortable majority already but will nevertheless be hoping to make gains from the Lib Dems. 

District Councils:

Broxtowe– possible Conservative gain

Chelmsford– a keenly fought contest between the Conservatives and Lib Dems

Taunton Deaneis currently in no overall control and both the Conservatives and Lib Dems will be trying to gain a majority. 

Teignbridge is a Conservative and Lib Dem toss up currently in no overall control. 

Guildford is a traditional Lib Dem and Conservative battleground and it will be interesting to see what happens here.  The Conservatives currently have a small majority. 

Hinckley and Bosworth is a Lib Dem administration that the Conservatives are targetting for gains. 

Lincoln is a Labour and Conservative toss up, where the Conservatives have a one seat majority.  This is a key parliamentary marginal so tomorrows results will be seen as significant. 

North Norfolk– home to Lib Dem MP Norman Lamb – is a Conservative target to gain from the Lib Dems.

Other elections

Northern Ireland Assembly elections

Election coverage so far has been dominated by a plea from the family of Ronan Kerr, the policemen killed by a car bomb in Omagh last month. The family urged people to vote to support the peace process.

Polls suggest that, unless unionist voters fail to turn up and vote, the Democratic Unionist party will remain the largest party.

The DUP and Sinn Fein are expected to consolidate their positions as the two largest parties. Who comes third and forth is less easy to predict. The Ulster Unionist Party is expected to lose votes to the centrist Alliance party of the DUP. This could let the SDLP come in as the third biggest party and mean that the second nationalist party will be entitled to two ministries in the next power-sharing cabinet.

Jim Allister, a critic of power-sharing and leader of Traditional Unionist Voice, is likely to get elected to North Antrim.

Tags: Local Elecitons 2011, Northern Ireland elections 2011