The Lib Dems did worse even than I predicted last night. Dominic Carman did indeed lose his deposit. He came sixth in the field of nine candidates, beaten by UKIP, the Tories, the BNP and an independent.
Labour will be celebrating today, but really with little cause. Dan Jarvis's victory is no surprise. Perhaps the only surprising aspect of his victory is that voters don't seem to have punished Labour at all for Eric Illsley's fiddled expenses.
Iin fact, we shouldn't really be surprised that the Lib Dems did so badly - they are a party of government now and are closely associated with some of the coalition's most unpopular decisions. They also, no doubt, suffered from the low turnout (36.5%). The regional backlash in South Yorkshire against the decision to cut support to Sheffield Forgemasters mustn't be overlooked as well.
The party with real cause to celebrate is UKIP. Coming second in a byelection is a major milestone for them, and the increase in their share of the vote from May last year (7%) will be keeping a smile firmly fixed on Nigel Farage's face today. They will be hoping that Barnsley Central will serve as a jumping-off point for more electoral successes in May's local elections.
Few real surprises from Barnsley, then, but a clear indication of what's in store for the Lib Dems in the future.
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