As part of our top political blogger series, we interview Mike Smithson from Political Betting. He talks to us about detoxifying the Tories, the trouble with MPs and why his money is on Ed Miliband.
Why did you start blogging?
I have been an activist/politico for most of my life. I have always been fascinated in forecasting political outcomes. I liked talking to other people who also liked forecasting political outcomes. I thought it would be quite good to start a website (this was six years ago) where like-minded people could go and discuss things.
Is it quite a niche market?
It has developed from there. We did a survey this year and I think only about 20 per cent of the visitors to political betting are gamblers. The other 80 per cent come along because they like the analysis on polling, election issues and so on.
You used to work for the BBC. Do you think that politicians nowadays have become too media savvy?
I don’t think they are media savvy. I am surprised at how bad some of them are.
You were also a founding member of the Lib Dems. What do you say to people who believe that the Lib Dem fan base is dwindling rapidly?
Their backing is now 15 per cent. We are in very early days. What I think happened is that, in the last three months, we have seen two remarkable happenings. One of them is that through the formation of the coalition the Conservatives have, with one stroke, found a means of detoxifying themselves. The party is relatively strong now. At the same time Labour has seen the back of Brown who was lost at sea — that itself was a detoxification process. Inevitably those two parties are more popular as a result of that.
Are you a fan of the coalition?
Absolutely. I think the coalition is the best thing that has happened to British politics in a long time. We don’t have a Labour government anymore.
What would you like to change in politics now?
One of the critical things that I would like to change is the emphasis on the local — the idea that an MP has got to be local to be able to represent constituents. MPs are there as legislators. I do loathe it if MPs feel their main duty to the electorate is to their locality. How do they fight for their locality? I can never quite work it out. It’s councillors who deal with local issues. I loathe that.
Who are your bets on for the Labour leadership?
It is very close between Ed and David. In betting terms, you tend to look at it at what’s the best value bet. Certainly with Ed Miliband on about 2/1 and David on about 4/6 the best value, if you think about them both as evens as it were, is Ed Miliband. He’s moving forward — we shall see. I got David Miliband some time ago at 7/1 and I got Ed at 22/1 so I’ll come off okay either way.
What advice can you give wannabe voters?
If you’re gambling on politics you have to push to one side your own allegiance. It’s very easy to say "I hate Labour" or "I hate the Tories". Quite often my decisions are based on what I would like to see happy rather than what a hard core analysis suggests is going to happen. Certainly with political betting it is not just the money but it’s the pleasure at being proved right.
Favourite politician?
Paddy Ashdown
Least favourite?
Gordon Brown