2011: the coalition's annus horribilis?

On 12 May 2010, the coalition agreement set out the details of the settlement between Conservative and Liberal Democrat negotiators in what was supposed to cement the two parties together for a full five-year partnership.

When it was first published, many commentators - yours truly included - were doubtful that the agreement would stand the test of time. We even made some preliminary plans for how we would act in the case of an autumn election.

But, by the time the spending review was published in November last year, the coalition top brass had hammered home the point that the partnership was going to last the full parliamentary term so often that many members of the public were beginning to believe it.

So, as 2011 gets under way, what does the public think about the coalition? And what do they thinkof the issues that will ultimately determine how long the coalition glue will last?

We have delved into our Cuts Index, a year-long series of weekly tracker polls for ITV News, to seek out the underlying trend data. In particular, we looked at the key issues of economic trust, spending cuts and public services so as to be able to assess the general picture. It all makes for pretty grim reading.

The results are best summed up thus: on every measure, relating to competence and performance, individual politicians and policies, past experience and future expectations, the public mood is growing increasingly negative.

On economic trust, the movement is bad - although not as bad as you may think. While trust in George Osborne has slipped more than it did for his boss, it is surprising that perceptions of both Ed Miliband and Alan Johnson have worsened more over the same period (see graph on the above).

There are three obvious implications from this. First, the coalition should be eternally grateful that Ed Miliband is Labour leader rather than David. However badly Miliband the Elder might poll, it would surely be better than his brother is faring.

Second, with the leader of the opposition and shadow chancellor polling so badly, it must be asked whether Labour has any prospect of reviving its credibility for economic management within the current generation of political leaders.

Third, George Osborne and Alan Johnson both need to focus on establishing public trust in their economic abilities, since around one-third of people don't know whether to trust them or not. The same is true of Ed Miliband, who is doing much worse than David Cameron on this measure. But he does not have to get to grips with the economic portfolio.

So, back to the coalition. As outlined above, on all other measures the public are more hostile today than they were at the beginning of October when the Cuts Index began.

Allied to the concerns over the fairness of spending cuts is the perception that the coalition doesn't really understand the concerns of people on low incomes (down from 31 per cent to 26 per cent over the period). To be fair, the proportion of people who think the coalition understands the concerns of people on high incomes has also decreased, albeit from a much higher base.

The measure of just how bruised the public is feeling is reflected in their perceptions of actual service delivery. Perhaps it is just the result of a prolonged cold spell or the dark winter nights. Whatever is responsible, public opinion is clearly hardening.

Yet the implementation of the cuts has not even started. Central government support for local government is set to be cut by 26 per cent in real terms by 2014-15. The worst is yet to come, but the public already thinks services are deteriorating.

So much for the external threats to the coalition - what about the internal ones?

The tuition fees vote in November led to what Philip Cowley, professor of parliamentary government at Nottingham University, describes as a "sense of loss of innocence".

Once an MP has rebelled, they are likely to do so again. We cannot tell with any certainty what recidivist rates will be in the rest of the Parliament, but with LiberalDemocrats being far more likely to rebel than their Conservative colleagues, it can only be a matter of time before Conservative resentment of their less disciplined coalition partners spills over into the public domain.

If the current rate of decline in public perceptions that we are seeing is not stemmed, the only thing holding the coalition together will be the fact that Labour is at least doing just as badly. But that is still before the cuts start to bite.

Perversely, though, the fact that expectations are so low at the moment may hold the key to the coalition's recovery in popularity. All it will take is a light dusting of modestly good news, the warmth of a spring day and perhaps a royal wedding, and the public mood will soon begin to turn.

Andrew Hawkins is chairman of ComRes

Tags: Alan Johnson MP, Andrew Hawkins, George Osborne, Issue 32, Philip Cowley, Polling, Spending cuts, Spending review