Good for Silvio, bad for Angela

 

Andrew Hawkins

 

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The recession will have a significant impact on June's European elections, says Andrew Hawkins, threatening to upset several governments 

 

 

Historically there have been two striking differences between European elections and national votes. First, turnout is always much lower in European elections. It will be no different this time.

 

Even in Belgium, where voting is compulsory and over 90 per cent voted in that country's last general election, only seven in 10 people are "certain to vote" this June. Where voting is voluntary, turnout will be much lower. Poland's last general election had a turnout of 54 per cent, whereas a paltry 13 per cent say they are certain to vote this month.

 

The second difference is the propensity of smaller parties to benefit from protest votes - which electors perceive to be cost-free - against traditional parties. This is shown dramatically in the charts below:

 

The recession queers the pitch still further. In some member states it promises a boost to the ruling party, while in others it threatens to upset governments.

 

The largest defeat for an incumbent government is likely to take place in Hungary, a country which has struggled with high unemployment and negative growth brought about by the global economic crisis. Fidesz, the populist, conservative, opposition party, is currently polling at over 60 per cent, while the newly-appointed Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai's Socialists languish on around 30 per cent.

 

Conversely, Italian voters are likely to deliver the largest endorsement of an incumbent government, with Silvio Berlusconi's newly-formed People of Freedom on course to best their leaderless Socialist opponents. The People of Freedom, formed following a merger of Berlusconi's Forza Italia and the nationalist Allianza Nazionale, will hope to achieve over 50 per cent of the vote and secure close to half the country's 72 seats. Similarly, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centreright Civic Platform is likely to expand its advantage over its nationalist opponents with party member Jerzy Buzek on course to become the first president of the European Parliament from a former communist state.

 

Moving to the north, while Angela Merkel appears the firm favourite to secure a second term as chancellor in September, her party will do well to replicate the strong showing it secured in 2004 where the party captured 49 of Germany's 99 seats. Ironically, the CDU/CSU's biggest challenge comes in the form of its preferred coalition partner the liberal FDP. The FDP, which won only six per cent at the last European elections, has consistently polled at over 15 per cent for the past 12 months and is likely to become the largest party in the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats grouping in the parliament.

 

On the European Group front, after its collapse following internal disagreements between members, it looks possible that the far-right Identity, Tradition, Sovereignty could be reconstituted after the elections. The British National Party, Hungarian Jobbik movement and Geert Wilders' Freedom Party, all of which have played on the economic fears of working-class voters, are all within striking distance of seats in the Brussels Parliament.

 

Eurosceptic parties, many of which are members of the Independence and Democracy group, appear unlikely to perform as well as in 2004 for a variety of reasons. The UK Independence Party is unlikely to repeat its 16 per cent of the vote and 12 parliamentary seats. Elsewhere, Eurosceptics are braced for potential losses in Denmark,France, Sweden and Poland.

 

Declan Ganley's Libertas is, despite the initial fanfare which greeted its arrival as the first truly pan- European political party, unlikely to record a strong performance. With Ganley's own election in the North West Ireland constituency far from assured, Libertas candidates slated for success - such as former Latvian Prime Minister Guntars Krasts and Czech businessman Vladimir Zelezny - appear likely to triumph on the back of their personal popularity as opposed to any real surge in support for the Eurosceptic party.

 

The British Conservatives, who have pledged to leave the EPP after the elections, are likely to struggle in their efforts to satisfy parliamentary rules which demand that political groups must be formed of MEPs from seven of more countries. While the British opposition is likely to improve upon its poor showing in the 2004 elections, its potential allies in the Czech ODS, Belgian Vlaams Belang and Latvian Fatherland and Freedom parties are likely to see their seats cut in the next session of parliament.

 

Across Europe, however, the elections are unlikely to result in a major shift in the balance of power in the European Parliament, with EPP likely to retain its modest advantage in the Brussels chamber over the Party of European Socialists. Working in coalition with the new market liberal alliance formed by the British Conservatives and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe group, the EPP will continue to shape the direction of legislation for the next fi ve years.

 

This may be the last set of European elections before the Lisbon Treaty is ratified. In that event, the 2013 elections will be to a parliament with new decision-making powers over areas such as trade and agriculture. Such a transfer of powers may - possibly - result in a more stable electoral environment as voters realise that a protest vote, or staying at home, is a costlier option that they thought.

 

 

Andrew Hawkins is chief executive of ComRes