This article is from the November issue of Total Politics
David Cameron, George Osborne and William Hague will resist calls from their own MPs to pull Britain out of the EU. The PM, chancellor and foreign secretary are in no doubt – Britain’s national interest lies in staying in the EU to help shape its rules and cash in on trade.
Eurosceptic backbenchers are clamouring for a historic change to the UK’s relationship with Brussels and are demanding a referendum on ‘in or out’. But Messrs Cameron, Osborne and Hague – every inch as Eurosceptic as their colleagues – have decided. We stay in.
Those around the PM, like Steve Hilton, are no fans of the Commission, which throws up hurdles to progress on a daily basis. The chancellor fought and won a bruising battle in Luxembourg during Tory conference week over derivative legislation.
But there’s a bigger game in town. The PM and his lieutenants are in no doubt the eurozone will soon head for fiscal union. This is the first step in a United States of Europe. Tory Eurosceptics, who believe European citizens are moving in the same direction, are making a fatal error of judgment.
Most Europeans have long accepted the idea of a single Europe. That will not change. One official regularly involved in EU business said: “It’s like the NHS in the UK. The default position is that the NHS is a good thing. So it is on the Continent. Most people accept the idea of a single Europe.”
EU leaders in the grip of the eurozone crisis, far from pulling the rug out from under the single currency, are now talking about fiscal union as the next logical step. The British government now accepts this will happen. Number 10, the Treasury and the FCO say what matters is how to protect Britain’s national interest when the 17 eurozone nations share tax and spend policy.
Ministers at the top of government are now working out how to deal with the forthcoming Commons debate on the EU. MPs will vote before Christmas on whether or not there should be a referendum to quit the EU altogether. It’s early days, but the signs are that the PM will decide to adopt a “relaxed” posture and treat the vote as a “take-note” motion. The debate is more likely to be on a substantive motion, but the premier’s instincts are to let backbenchers have their day – then ignore the result.
In private, the PM, chancellor and foreign secretary are frustrated with the Eurosceptic drive underway in the party. They understand the frustrations of their MPs because they feel the same instincts, but British jobs depend on a successful, thriving single market. UK exports to the EU topped £92bn last year. UK exports to the rest of the world reached just £77bn, so it’s clear to the PM, chancellor and foreign secretary where our national interests lie.
Government chief whip Patrick McLoughlin is likely to do all he can to take the sting out of the Commons backbench committee debate on a Thursday in the run-up to Christmas.
Ministers will shorten the backbench debate by stacking the day with important statements. And No10 will do all it can to avoid whipping the vote.
George Pascoe-Watson is a partner at Portland Communications
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