Note: The fact this article appears in the week that the Tories secured a record 20% lead in the ICM poll and Labour faced a possible lost deposit in the Henley By-election is of course purely coincidental!

Its a taboo subject for campaigners in politics: how do we make sure we at least lose well when despite all our public protestations to the contrary, in our heart of hearts we know we are going to lose?

Ask an average party organiser and they will quite rightly say:

"We can't entertain the idea of defeat. There will be enough time for the post-mortem's afterwards...."

"......Admitting the possibility of defeat will only demoralise members. Our job is to fight to win!"

Indeed, I have to admit to knowing of a clearly impending local defeat from a good understanding of the appalling voter id data and then wilfully misleading local members to maximise their commitment in what I described as a "tight campaign".

How do you square the circle to fight a "winning campaign" whilst ensuring that you are immediately ready for the next campaign after a resounding defeat?

1. A detailed analysis of the electoral scenarios. Whilst targeting will focus on the 'marginals' to gain and defend, they will be publicly based on the electoral landscape you fought on last time. As well as that you need to also make a private assessment of what the current electoral landscape is and what are the 'marginals' in that context. Having discounted the seats that are truly safe and the ones you don't hold, you can then look at the seats that might go in a landslide. How do you then assess which ones might be saved? One judgement is to identify seats with representatives for whom it would be a tragedy to lose as well as being a further political embarrassment on a bad night. The advantage of identifying these seats is that they might bring in extra support and funds additional to your formal target objectives.

2. Go wide on voter contact. With a range of PR and FPTP elections over variously sized geographical areas in a 4-5 year cycle, you should have flexibility to spread resources over a wider area in between elections to contribute to a range of electoral objectives over that cycle. Ensure you build in the scope to cater for catastrophic defeat, by targeting areas that may later become your new battlegrounds during a period of opposition.

3. Use training to promote the right message. Whilst your training is focused on readying your marginals, you should ensure your next group of seats receive training to push messages that dispel complacency and build them as the new marginals in your reduced state.

4. Flexibility on polling day. In war there is a concept of a strategic reserve. In politics though we might like to quote Clausewitz and Sun Tzu, we don't follow all their precepts. The assumption is that you have identified your targets and commit all. Yet we know on the day when one "calls" a seat in the afternoon,some activists will disagree with the decision whichever way it is called. Developing a small local strategic reserve is vital. These may be people who can only help in the evening. Try to commit them to go to a central place and then allocate them from there. This will give you the flexibility to re-allocate a small number of people without giving away to the rest of your activists a change in the plan to move towards a more negative outcome.

5. Have a post-election plan of action. Have some work ready for the weeks after polling day. Win or lose; you should have draft "Thank-you leaflets" ready to print. Have an agreed process prior to the elections that losing candidates can become "local ward spokespersons" at least until the next selection process. Input polling station numbers for target wards and deliver a postal vote target letter within weeks of the election to supporters who did not vote. They may be feeling a little guilty, so are more likely to sign up for one then. This approach might also soak up the anger of any candidate who is surprised they lost to what might be an unworthy opponent.

The above points should not detract from an effective campaign in your formal marginals, but should also increase your scope to flexibly respond to events.

What goes for local campaigning also applies to national campaigning too. I'll cover that in another posting after the Henley dust settles.