New Year predictions tend to be the archetypal example of page-filling waffle, so let’s try to inject something a bit more exciting into the early January snooze-fest by attempting to make some money.
Betting on politics is an underrated activity for those inclined to throwing their cash away. What better way to test out your political nous than by putting your money where your mouth is? Here are three tips that might just prove profitable over the coming year.
The safe bet
Boris Johnson to be the next London mayor, 4/11 with Skybet
Say what you like about Boris, the former MP for Henley is as close as you’re ever likely to come to a racing cert to beat Ken Livingstone in the London mayoral election this May. Boris is popular, loveable and has managed to survive his first term as mayor without alienating any large swathes of the capital (á la Liverpool).
Under Johnson council tax has been frozen, employment has grown and the dreaded bendy bus has disappeared. Ken’s only chance seems to be his fair rail fares campaign, but that will not be the biggest issue for most Londoners. Livingstone seems to become more and more eccentric as time passes; polls consistently show that voters are unconvinced by the Labour candidate. Johnson really would have to throw this away for Ken to cause an upset. Backing Boris to stay on as mayor at 4/11 with Skybet is surely money well spent.
The investment
Mitt Romney to win the US Presidential election, 7/4 with Ladbrokes
Romney may not be the American right’s preferred choice as the Republican presidential candidate, but the former Governor of Massachusetts is the likely winner of the GOP nomination. Michelle Bachmann withdrew from the running yesterday, with Rick Perry looking likely to follow suit. Newt Gingrich surely has too many skeletons in his closet to be chosen, not to mention the fact that non-Republican voters utterly despise him. Jon Huntsman has mounted a credible challenge though it would be some feat for him to overcome the more heavyweight figures within the party. Rick Santorum will do well in the more religious and traditional states, but is not the man to win over undecided voters. The libertarian Ron Paul is popular yet held back by his age, alleged bigotry and stance on Israel.
The Mail’s Tim Shipman convincingly argues that Mitt Romney is the man who will face Barack Obama. He isn’t the most charismatic and he won’t be revolutionising the US, but his economic policies and electability will pose serious problems to Obama, a president who has struggled during his first term. Indeed Romney has a good chance of making it his only term, and 7/4 on him to win with Ladbrokes seems too good to turn down.
The long shot
Ken Clarke to be the next cabinet minister to leave, 7/1 with William Hill
This one is a bit of a risk as, if there’s any common sense left in Westminster, Chris Huhne will be the next minister to go. Yet Huhne is a slippery character and it would not be the greatest shock if he were to evade prosecution for allegedly asking his wife to put his speeding points on her license.
Ken Clarke, on the other hand, can always be relied on put his foot in it. Unpopular amongst some Tory backbenchers and often referred to as the sixth Lib Dem in cabinet, Clarke could have gone last year after his ‘proper rape’ blunder and cat-gate with Theresa May. If Huhne manages to escape his distraction at Her Majesty’s pleasure, a punt on Clarke committing one gaffe too many and losing his Prime Minister’s patience is perhaps worthwhile. 7/1 with William Hill looks particularly enticing.
So there are three political bets that might be worth staking a few pounds on over the year to come. Best of luck if you decide to have a go.
Oh, and just for a laugh you can get 250/1 on Gordon Brown to return as the next Labour leader. You never know.
Alexander Wickham is a freelance journalist who writes for The Independent, amongst others. He tweets at @Wickham_A
Comments
SophyR / January 05 2012 4:13pm
love this
Mike Hunt / January 05 2012 8:17pm
good read