After what some were calling a dead heat with Christian conservative Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney has won the first vote by members of the Republican Party in the Midwest state of Iowa. The Iowa caucus is usually considered the first step in a US Presidential nomination. But Romney only won with an eight vote majority, with outsider libertarian Ron Paul coming in third. So, the people of Iowa have spoken - but what did they say and what does it mean for the race to the Whitehouse?
None of the above
“The enduring image from Iowa will be all of those voters who were interviewed, right up until the end, saying they still didn't know who to go for. And if no one inspired them, what chance is there of Romney (or whoever) inspiring the swing voters?”
Fraser Nelson, writing in the Spectator blog, reflects on the inability of any candidate to sufficiently capture the imagination of the electorate. Ron Paul created a groundswell of support but many consider his leftfield ideas unelectable. Mitt Romney is regarded as the most presidential of the line-up but his rhetoric rarely rises above the robotic and he is too liberal for some. Bachmann and Perry’s campaigns are now effectively dead in the water and although Santorum appeals to the evangelical vote, he is painted as an extremist. Is it little wonder that Republican voters were less than ecstatic about casting their vote?
And the winner is... Obama?
“The real big winner in all of this is Obama, who can now look forward to Republicans spending more money fighting each other, either to nominate someone unelectable or bloody the best prospect they have, only to end up with a candidate they don't really like.”
Gary Younge, The Guardian. The President is experiencing approval ratings of around 20%, a record low, and getting attacked on a range of policies. The fact that Republican voters have not exploited this, and have yet aligned themselves with a viable candidate (and even at one point considered Herman Cain) lead some commentators to suggest that all Obama has to do to win is sit back and watch the opposition implode.
Anyone but him
“This result is both good and bad (for Romney). This dead heat underscores the yearning of conservatives for somebody, anybody, but him.”
Mark Mardell on the BBC Today programme remarking on the widespread concern amongst Republican voters that Romney is too moderate. In addition to apparent ‘flip-flopping’ on issues such as abortion, Romney has attracted ire from the Republican base for some of the healthcare legislation he signed during his time as Governor of Massachusetts which appeared to resemble the hated ‘Obamacare’.
Going for gold
"The campaign is celebrating a great victory. There were three tickets out of Iowa, and Ron Paul earned one of them."
Ron Paul 2012 campaign website. Some of Paul’s more infamous policies include the complete withdrawal of overseas US troops and the return to the gold standard. Many label him as a crank and a radical but it is exactly his unique positions that attract the grassroots and disenfranchised voters. The stridently libertarian candidate has always appeared on the fringes of American politics but his support so far refuses to ebb and his third place position in Iowa is notable. But is it down to merit or, as Newt Gingrich labelled him, a protest vote?
This must be the place
“The race for the White House has to begin somewhere. No matter where, that locale would be criticized. Outsiders would say it was too urban or too rural or too wealthy or too poor or too whatever. Iowa is as good a place as any, and better than many.”
Des Moines Register editorial. It is difficult to understand, for observers both foreign and domestic, the caucus system that one political scientist once labelled as ‘indecipherable chicanery’. Nobody really understands why exactly the small, rural and overwhelmingly white state of Iowa is considered so crucial in determining presidential candidates. But it is.
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