Christmas and New Year tend to bring about countless retrospectives – top 10 political moments of the year, and so on and so forth. (I suggest you read Sadie Smiths’s analysis of PMQs not the others in any case) Instead of looking back at the, admittedly jam-packed, past year, I make, in no particular order, 12 political predictions for 2012:

1. David Miliband will return to the Labour frontbench, after being desperately called upon by his brother to unite his party, (and add some talent to a fairly insipid looking bunch).

2. All three main party political leaders will remain in post. The Tories aren’t going to throw out a Prime Minister, there is a lot of loyalty to Nick Clegg, (and nobody yet able to replace him,) and Labour don’t want another leadership election. Move along then, nothing to see hear

3. Vince Cable will not be in the Cabinet by the end of the year. Increasingly uncomfortable with life, and looking a bit past it, I can see Cable bowing out of frontbench politics as part of a May reshuffle,

4. Greece, and perhaps one other country, will leave the Euro. I am pretty pro-EU, but the whole thing is a mess. Merkosy and others are likely to swallow their pride and chop off a finger or two to stop the infection spreading to bigger parts of the body.

5. News International will launch ‘The Sun on Sunday’. You think Murdoch is just going leave all those Sunday readers without one of his titles? Not a chance. As interest in Leveson wanes, and the public have time to forget how sorry they feel for the Dowler parents, the Sun on Sunday will appear on a newsstand near you.

6. David Laws will return to the Government. He is far too liked, respected, and needed by both sides of the coalition for him to stay skulking in the background for much longer.

7. Paddy Ashdown will become Defence Secretary. Fox became an embarrassment, Hammond is hardly the most inspiring leader of our troops, and doesn’t just the thought of former marine Lord Ashdown in the role make you sleep a bit more soundly?!

8. There will be no referendum on EU membership. The coalition is still fixing the bridges burned by the AV referendum, the likelihood of them allowing a second referendum within the first three years of their government is almost unthinkable, whatever happens in Brussels, Berlin, or the Tory backbenches.

9. The Liberal Democrats will consistently poll at between 12% and 15%. Remember, the party polled 17% in local elections, despite the public wanting to give them a kicking. There is no reason that effective messaging can’t turn the polling tide.

10. The UKIP boom will bust. While many British people are dubious about Britain’s relationship with Europe, few are myopic about it to a great enough extent to boost UKIP further than the 6-7% they have seen recently. People will lose interest if and when the Eurozone crisis subsides.

11. There will be further inquiries into the practices of lobbyists and public affairs consultants. We have already heard talk of a statutory register for lobbyists, and while the Bell Pottinger Independent splash may have been a bit of a damp squib, there are people digging around to turn lobbying into the next political scandal....

12. Barack Obama will beat Newt Gingrich to win a second term as President. It's going to be close, but none of the Republican field are strong enough to beat the incumbent who killed Bin Laden.

Tags: David Laws, David Miliband, EU, EU REFERENDUM, Greece, Liberal Democrats, News International, Nick Clegg, Paddy Ashdown, Vince Cable