Polls frequently show that Europe is not the biggest deal to voters but this week that theory was placed under a magnifying glass. In the immediate aftermath of David Cameron’s ‘veto’ of an EU deal, support for the Conservatives rose seven points in Ipsos MORI’s December Political Monitor for Reuters while satisfaction with David Cameron also rose significantly. So does Europe matter to the punters? Is it a vote winner? Or is this just a temporary bump?
As our polling shows – and that of other pollsters – the Tories have at the very least drawn level with Labour on voting intention making it hard to argue that Europe matters little. The boost in the polls can only be put down to Cameron’s stance on a deal with Europe. It is interesting then to try to understand British attitudes towards Europe.
It is true, we are more euro-sceptic as a nation in 2011 than we have been for almost 30 years. Just two months ago half the public said they would vote for Britain to leave the EU in a referendum, the highest we have recorded since 1983! Perhaps in the face of a national and international economic crisis we have become more inwardly-focused, indeed we have seen attitudes hardening against bailing out other countries and just four in ten people think ‘Merkozy’ and other European leaders are handling the crisis well.
Or it could be that the government’s line of blaming Europe for economic ills is taking its toll - the state of other countries’ economies is perceived as the number one threat to our national interest. Interestingly enough, in 2003 and every time we asked it going back to 1984, the British public rated the relationship with Europe as more important than with the United States – how would that sit now?
Yet despite all that, Europe per se is still a very low issue of importance to voters. Even with the current eurozone crisis (although admittedly before last week’s events) fewer than one in ten people name Europe as one of the most important issues facing the country. Recent elections also suggest that Europe is not an issue that determines how many people vote.
By far and away the most important issue dominating the concerns of people in Britain is the economy, closely followed by unemployment. These are the issues they want the government to tackle and perhaps the point is that Cameron was seen to be protecting the British economy, and demonstrating strong leadership in a crisis. Cameron already leads Miliband and Clegg on many qualities, but clearly there is a short term political benefit to the ‘veto’. A rise in the polls, and a bump in satisfaction ratings are something Cameron, his party and his government have rarely enjoyed this year. The big question is whether or not they can hold onto them.
What makes these boosts in the polls so remarkable is that they come just a few weeks after the Chancellor delivered a downbeat Autumn Statement, setting out tough times ahead. The answer to whether this is Cameron’s defining moment or if the polls will resume their previous position is likely to lie in how the economy pans out. The nation is divided over whether the government is making the right decisions or not on reducing the deficit; this may be a more important metric to watch than attitudes towards Europe.
Tom Mludzinski is Deputy Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI
Comments
Clr Ralph Baldwin / December 19 2011 10:39pm
Tom,
I mentioned on this blog the implications of David Cameron's position and again was proven to be correct I find it very amusing that some Labour folk are still confused as to how this occurred and are still in denial.
You begin to hit the nail on the head when you bring in the economy as the situation in Europe has everything to do with eonomics and real fear, but as mentioned rightly by the Torie it is also about democracy.
People are very frustrated with local politics, disgusted with MPs (rightly) and stunned by MEP's. Most people understand that Europe has an unelected Leadership which to people outside the political classes is disturbing to say the lest, the public are mostly aware the people making policy are acolytes with no valid experience they are also mostly aware that the banking sector owns the political class.
As most MEPs are remote and are rarely seen by the public who are aware of how money they are getting they know and understand that Europe is a massive Gravy Boat and the ridiculous and scandalous decisions the EU has made has highlighted through media publication the out of touch eccentricity of the EU maladministration. .
Clr Ralph Baldwin / December 19 2011 10:46pm
continued...
In addition we now have a blatent lack of Leadership in Europe and the danger of one foreign power holding too much dominance and say. Either way it isn't a pretty picture...add to that they want our money and its curtains for the Uks appreciation of Europe. Far older and wiser people than me can recall WHY we went into Europe and the lessons of the Second Wold War which the political class has ignored and trodden on and we all remember the repeat referendum which was the greatest assault and insult on the people and democracy imaginable...this captures well the contempt, arrogance and stupidity of the EU ruling Underclass which is unforgivable.
I'm amazed people ask why. Because it's so blatantly obvious.
Again we need democracy to save us from excesses of corruption and the transformation of what was a good idea into an undemocratic corrupt Corporate owned nightmare that many have said we fought against and gave their lives against.