By Robert Waller

It is generally (and largely correctly) believed that PR (proportional representation) helps smaller parties, and some people may have mistakenly assumed that the proposed change from First Past the Post electoral system to the Alternative Vote in the referendum scheduled for May 2011 would have the same effect. Indeed, it has even been heard as an argument for voting ‘No’ that AV would not only encourage ‘extreme’ parties but help them to gain representation and power.

In fact, nothing could be further from the case. The critical thing to remember is that AV is not PR. As a preferential system which retains single members, it works against small parties on the far Right and Left as they are unlikely to be many voters’ second choice. As has been the case with the BNP in local elections, other parties tend to ‘gang up’ against them, and while they may have won some councillors in their strong areas, this has almost always been on a low share of the vote when votes have been widely split; I have not found a case of even a council seat being won by a BNP candidate with over 50% of the vote. Evidence from preferential systems such as the lower house in Australia (AV) and Scottish councils (STV) strongly suggests that far Right and Left parties attract few second preferences. The BNP would be even less likely to return an MP under AV. Full PR would be a different matter, as the National Front found in winning 30 seats on the one occasion it was tried in France in 1986.

However, the same does not apply to small parties that are perceived as not being extreme, such as the Greens. As many voters think (if perhaps vaguely) that the environment is a Good Thing, the Greens would be likely to be the second choice of many voters. For this reason, Caroline Lucas should be able to retain her Brighton Pavilion seat easily under AV. Nevertheless, do not expect that she will be joined by numbers of other Green MPs. Their problem is that they still have to win enough first preference votes to get into the later rounds of the count; and even in their strongest areas after Brighton, such as Norwich South, they were only fourth in 2010 and would have been eliminated before second preferences could have kicked in. In fact, analysing all the results from May, the only other ‘minor’ party candidate likely to have been elected under AV would have been the Independent Dr Taylor of Wyre Forest, who finished second but would most likely have been promoted to beat the Conservative due to his popularity and perceived moderation.

It should of course be borne in mind that voting patterns themselves would be changed by AV, and more first preferences would be cast for small parties due to this not being seen as a ‘wasted vote’. However, small parties are just that, and a Yes vote in the referendum will not suddenly make them large enough to win significant numbers of seats. The single Green elected in the recent Australian elections, in Melbourne, topped the poll on the first count, like Caroline Lucas.

Indeed, the electoral effects of AV would be nowhere near as vast as a PR system. The Liberal Democrats would gain seats, but no more than an extra 30 on the most optimistic estimate, and probably more like 15 (mostly from Labour in 2010, so the coalition arithmetic would not be altered much). Only in a tiny handful of cases could a party possibly win from third place in a multi-way marginal. Whether Nationalists in Scotland and Wales would gain is a moot point, as the unionist parties may transfer amongst themselves. There would be a slight advantage for the more moderate parties in Northern Ireland, such as in Antrim South — but as in England, only if they were strong enough to finish in the first two anyway.

AV would not transform the prospects of small parties in the UK, nor radically change our political scene — as proper PR would, which could lead to fragmentation, and certainly would always lead to coalition government, often, as in 2010 elections in countries such as Holland, Belgium and Sweden, decided by back-room deals between parties.