All the talk before today’s early morning brinkmanship was whether our prime minister would win concessions from his European partners, or whack them over the head with his veto. In the end he did neither.
Cameron didn’t arrive at the wife-swapping party without a wife. Instead, he chose to spend the evening with the crossword and a warm cup of cocoa. What those frisky continentals wanted to get up to was a matter for them. Just so long as they kept the noise down.
Watching nervously from behind a twitching curtain is Ed Miliband. Labour believed they had David Cameron trapped between a rock and a bunch of anti-European head cases. That’s why over the past couple of months Douglas Alexander and Ed Balls have been carefully diluting their party’s instinctive internationalism and replacing it with some hard-headed euro pragmatism.
The strategy was to get to a place where Labour could have its cake and eat it. If Cameron had returned from the summit with too few concessions Labour had the space to condemn an ineffective defence of British interests and attack from the right. If he came back with too many he would have found himself assailed for caving in to his backbenchers and ripping up vital social protection.
As things stand, Labour is in a bind. “We’ve got to be careful,” said a party insider. “We’ve obviously got to point out Cameron has left Britain dangerously isolated, which he has. But we can’t run around saying we’d have signed the treaty. That would just play into his hands and strengthen his position”.
Despite this, Labour believes the past week has again exposed the Tory fault lines on Europe. “The eurosceptics aren’t going to go away. And in fact it’s still not clear whether Cameron did enough to placate them over the short term. It’ll be interesting to see how many of them pat him on the back when he delivers his statement on Monday.”
The warmth of that welcome will also be influenced by the complexities of the prime minister’s relationship with his euro rebels. Actually, it’s not that complicated. They can’t stand each other. “There are about 30 to 40 die-hards who wouldn’t throw a bucket of water over Cameron if he was on fire,” said one Tory party source.
But to an extent, Labour is whistling past the graveyard. Whatever the response of the ‘usual euro suspects’, Cameron has certainly done enough to win over the vast majority of his parliamentary party. And tomorrow’s headlines, and photoshopped images of the prime minister with cigar and victory V-sign, will further boost his standing.
In contrast, this could be the moment Ed Miliband’s luck finally ran out. Earlier in the year the storm clouds gathering over his leadership were chased away by the phone-hacking scandal, and his deft response to it. Some had been hoping an eruption of Tory infighting over Europe could provide similar respite. Not this time. “We blew it,” said one MP. “We should have gone for an in/out referendum earlier in the year. That was Ed’s chance.”
Monday’s statement on the euro summit was being built up as the most difficult of David Cameron’s political career. Now, if anything, the pressure is about to shift the other way. “What’s going to happen?" said a Labour backbencher. "Is it going to be like the strikes? We need a clear line. To be honest, I don’t care what it is. We just need a simple answer. Would we have signed up to the treaty or not?”
Coming off the back of the strikes, where Labour’s leader was seen not so much to sit on the fence as be jumping from one side to the other, it is vital for him to be seen to have a clear position. Very few voters will understand the minutiae of the new draft treaty. But they will understand that David Cameron stood alone amongst the 26 other member states.
Politically, this is no longer about Europe. It’s now about leadership.
Comments
Clr Ralph Baldwin / December 09 2011 7:06pm
Ed lacks moral and substantive meaningful judgement and it shows and the public have sussed him and his ilk.
Cameron has played a very wise card...now we have to watch a club party in the euro-zone composed of the Merkal and Sarkozy "Union" and their ridiculous undemocratic plan plan fail to even address the liquidity issues of the European banks and Merkal is about to learn that it would have been far better to win support after making a tough decision than the other way around.
Now the fun really begins...and I amy well be wrong here but my instincts are that cameron was right and I think this will send a pulse of life beyond just the Tory party it sits well with the British mentality.
Now he has to continue but think about maintaining the "responsible" narrative, this means grim determination, consistency and getting in there where people are hurting on the domestic level. if the polices on Welfare are overly harsh or overly generous he needs to balance it where he can by involving groups and people and look at new ways to fund training and skills developement.
Keep that local economic focus and the personal relationship with two dominant leaders who do not want our anglo-american input, but to develop their own. will become increasingly irrelevant.
We need a stronger hand and it's up to us to maintain it in the ailing Global economy, build the skills, build the chances of creating new economies and look at new ideas and innovation...and let the economics lead the way!
Cromwellian / December 10 2011 1:40am
I never believed David Cameron had a pair, and coming from what you would call the the far right, he has put the United Kingdom on the market again, just wait and see how our european neighbours start piling in the euros, to invest uk in the future of the EU!!, it is bankrupt really we can win here just play the game. bigger picture!!
K.R.Lohse / December 10 2011 5:06pm
Ed's luck ran out the day the unions propelled him into a position which the majority of the Party didn't want him in. He is a ghastly mistake by Labour, and you won't have the common-sense to change him.