There may be relief among the Lib Dem leadership this morning after a survey by Lib Dem Voice found that grassroots support for the coalition still remains strong.

The encouraging signs include the fact that 71% of members polled expect the coalition to last a full parliament. However, the party is split with only 53% feeling the party is implementing a "significant part" of the manifesto. This fear is backed up by the 82% who feel the leadership should work on communicating how Lib Dem policies are making a big enough difference in government.

The strongest opinion expressed is that 84% of the members are opposed to "any" suggestion of an electoral arrangement with the Conservatives at the next general election. However according to a ConservativeHome poll, 66% of Conservative members have expressed support for the idea of a non-aggression pact with the Liberal Democrats in Lib/Con marginal constituencies.

Why would only 16% of Lib Dems, but over five times that number of Conservative members, be open to an electoral pact? The reason is very simple, according to Professor Vernon Bogdanor. He believes coalition government has "always benefited the Conservatives". Bogdanor explains that previous four Liberal-Conservative coalitions, in 1794, 1834, 1886 and 1931 ended in the same manner — "One wing of the party would subsequently be swallowed up by the Conservatives, while the other wing remained independent."

Both parties have shown clear support for the coalition. But based solely on this evidence, a majority of Lib Dem supporters appear reluctant to see the partnership continue beyond its five-year warrantee and into an election.

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