We’re about to witness the biggest coalition screw up since, well, last week. With an economic crisis on the continent, stagnating economy at home and 50 bigger issues on the agenda, the government was hoping to keep a firm lid on Major's Maastricht ghost.
Currently as many as 100 Conservatives and 10 Lib Dems could rebel against a government three line whip, with a number of threatened resignations from junior ministers and parliamentary private secretaries. The largely eurosceptic right are chomping at the bit for a shot at ridding Britain of the dreaded EU ‘threat’
The vote has come completely out of the blue after a motion was tabled at the Backbench Business Committee. The committee has a mandate to give backbenchers and the public more of a say in Commons debates and issues which have reached 100,000 supporters on the government's e-petition site. Motions on Hillsborough and the London riots, have been prominent of late.
However the largest petition calling for a referendum on the EU has only attracted 36,000 supporters, barely a third of what’s necessary.
This isn’t a motion which was brought about by popular demand but backbench Tory agitators. Prominent trouble-makers, Peter Bone, Philip Davies and Philip Hollobone are all members of the committee and signatories of the motion.
The government damage limitation machine is in full swing. The vote has been brought forward - officially to allow the PM to attend, unofficially to curtail lobbying. Senior whips have been spotted doing the rounds. And David Cameron has been spotted going in and out of his parliamentary office to shore up support.
The government is spooked by the motion, but it will fall nonetheless. The economy, timing and party politics will see to that.
A referendum in the next 12 months would be devastating to the economy. The eurozone is weak and needs all of the political and moral support it can muster. Britain jumping ship would likely dent confidence in European institutions further and make an appalling economic situation terminal.
Some on the right might welcome the collapse of the eurozone and the European project but a disorganised rout would cripple our largest trading partners and bring the British economy down with it.
The Conservative leadership may be eurosceptic but they are realists. They’re not about to play international Jenga.
The second issue is timing. It’s rather poor. The economy is weak and people are worried about their jobs, heating their homes and keeping up with inflation. The coalition will not be thanked for preoccupying themselves on constitutional matters for the second time this year and needs to get on with the bread and butter of politics.
I suspect the right, as Liberals did before them on AV, have grossly overestimated current public interest in constitutional wonkery.
Finally a referendum is dangerous for both coalition partners. Whilst the EU rebels may think a referendum is just the thing to assert ‘Toryism’, recent history suggests a Conservative Party split on Europe goes nowhere fast and Cameron could do without the headache right now.
Meanwhile the motion is also toxic for the Lib Dems. The parties MPs walked out of a motion for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in 2008 because there was no in-out option. Indeed, the petition calling for such a vote is still up.*
I expect most Lib Dem MPs will go with the whip; while many Liberals, myself included, would support a referendum that won't stop the right attacking the Liberals.
Thankfully for the coalition, Ed Miliband has failed to capitalise on the situation after announcing Labour will support a 'no' vote with a three-line whip. In doing so he’s ensured the government can tolerate a large rebellion and may well have prevented some of the more hesitant MPs from joining the rebellion – why vote against the government with no chance of success?
By showing his cards early Miliband hasn’t just missed a trick in destabilising the government, he’s killed the motion.
The whips can sleep soundly. The motion will die.
*UPDATE: The Lib Dem petition page was taken down yesterday.
Comments
Kevin leonard / October 21 2011 1:41pm
However the largest petition calling for a referendum on the EU has only attracted 36,000 supporters, barely a third of what’s necessary.
Sorry to be such a picky type but this debate has nothing to do with the on-line petition but was brought about by a another petition signed by well over 100,000 and presented to the back bench committee who authorised its legitimacy.
The biggest problem the government and the Labour party face over this debate is the use of the whip system to kill what the public see as their democratic right to actually be represented by their local mp.
Many voters who are unwilling to comply with Europe will be forced away from the three stooges and into the arms of the waiting U.K.I.P.
Rob Carr / October 21 2011 2:07pm
I'm not entirely sure Ed Miliband has missed a trick, Martin. By ensuring the Tory front bench pass a motion against the referendum, he keeps the split alive in the Right. Whilst the whips may be allowed to lie at peace, I would bet that the sleeping dogs on the back benches won't be doing the same. On top of that, those rabidly anti-EU voters will begin to look elsewhere for their referendum at the ballot box. Perhaps to UKIP who are far more likely to split the Tory vote than Labour's.
Sandy Jamieson / October 22 2011 8:23pm
If Europe collapses so be it and certain of our trading partners are damaged fine. They export to us than we to them so what have we to lose. In addition, there's the issue of counting exports via Rotterdam as exports to the EU even though the are destined to countries outside the EU(SSR). It is worth bearing any burden paying any price to regain our freedom and of course the vast quantity of money we pay to the unaudited and corrupt Commission