By Dr Carwyn Tywyn

During the 1980s and early 1990s, much was made of the ability of the Conservative Party to gain support from skilled working class men (sometimes referred to as C2s/Essex man/white van man), who became attracted to the Conservatives by populist economic policies. The reluctance of Welsh C2s to make a similar leap from Labour to Conservative was an important distinction between the political cultures of England and Wales at the time.

If the Conservatives are to gain Bridgend from Labour (where an 8.6 per cent swing is required), then David Cameron will probably need to make some inroads into those elusive Welsh C2s. The political rewards of doing so will be high. A Conservative gain in Bridgend would indicate that the party is enjoying the sort of election night that it had expected at the very start of this campaign.

More significantly, if the Conservatives win here, they will have taken a decisive first step towards the political “decapitation” of Carwyn Jones, the first minister of Wales, who represents Bridgend in the National Assembly. The Welsh Conservatives require only a 5.2 per cent swing in the 2011 National Assembly election to gain Bridgend and therefore inflict a significant crisis in Welsh politics.

The diverse social profile of Bridgend constituency is similar to several seats in Wales where the Conservatives are the main challengers to Labour. The northern fringes of Bridgend are predominantly working class and more akin to the neighbouring constituency of Ogmore, one of the quintessential former coal-mining seats of south Wales where, according to popular myth, the Labour vote would be “weighed” rather than counted. The market town of Bridgend, at the heart of the constituency, is relatively prosperous compared to other places of a similar size in south Wales. Over the last two decades, Bridgend has played host to several significant inward investment projects.

The genteel, coastal resort of Porthcawl lies to the south of the constituency. Given that voter turnout is highest among older people, the Conservatives can count on a strong core support on the coast. However, the Conservatives will also need to make inroads into the significant Liberal Democrat vote (21 per cent in 2005). They will also need to persuade a sufficient number of lifelong Labour voters to make the direct switch to the Conservatives that Essex man famously made all those years ago.