Guest blog from WalesHome.org

Today marks the culmination of what must be the longest resignation in British political history. More than four years — the term of an American President — after he said he’d go, the Welsh First Minister Rhodri Morgan has finally handed in his notice.

It’s a measure of the enduring popularity of Rhodri (always Rhodri, never “Morgan”) that such an elongated departure has done nothing to weaken his position. Unlike Tony Blair, whose resignation pre-announcement triggered an inexorable bleeding of authority such that he was forced from office early, Rhodri has enjoyed complete licence to name his date and his terms for his exit. According to some reports, he has even resisted pressure from figures up to and including the Prime Minister to stay on.

The deeper, more dispassionate analysis of Rhodri’s tenure could well be an indifferent one. His government has missed its chief targets for raising Welsh prosperity, and he has led his party to some of the worst election results in its history. But this ignores the most un-politician like esteem in which people in Wales continue to hold him, and the unkempt, unspun appeal of a figure who was arguably made by Tony Blair’s botched attempt to keep him from the top job following Ron Davies’s “moment of madness”.

So what now? Having made a mess of the last contest, the Welsh Labour Party is taking no chances this time. A carefully worked out eight week timetable to decide his successor has been triggered, and the new leader will be in place before Christmas. Three names currently occupy the frame. Carwyn Jones, the Assembly’s Counsel General, has long been deemed the front-runner, but has lately suffered from accusations that he lacks drive and vision. Perhaps as damagingly, he is regarded within some elements of his party as being overly nationalistic. Then there is Huw Lewis, a left-leaning but modernising backbencher with considerable support among party activists. The principle charge against Lewis is, ironically, the opposite to that of Carwyn Jones; he is deemed too tribalist and antagonistic toward Plaid Cymru - a problem when you consider that they are currently Labour’s coalition partner in government. The third name is that of Edwina Hart, the blunt-talking but camera-shy Health Minister. Hart is said to enjoy considerable union support and may well now be deemed the true front-runner, despite only emerging most recently as a candidate.

None have the profile of Rhodri - but then no-one in Welsh politics does - and there remains the faint possibility that none will become First Minister. Others, particularly Education Minister Jane Hutt could emerge, and there is the even more distant prospect that the Labour-Plaid alliance will not survive a change of leader. But the chances are that one of these three will lead both Welsh Labour and Wales soon. Given that they may shortly be the only Labour leader in power anywhere in the UK, this election could have significance far beyond Welsh politics. (Photo: Getty Images)

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