I don’t pretend to know what the result will be tomorrow, although I predict a win for the No camp (full disclosure: I have voted no). But putting the issues to one side for the moment, it’s clear that the Yes campaign, who were already trailing in the polls, have undermined their chances of victory by failing to run a full-spectrum campaign.
The area where this failure makes itself most readily apparent is online. Over the last few todays (and today as well) the only ads I’ve seen on any website I’ve visited have been No to AV ads. The Yes ads are nowhere to be seen.
Now you might say to yourself that online advertising isn’t that important. And for sure, it isn’t a silver bullet; online alone won’t win you a campaign. But any sizeable modern campaign, and certainly a national one is playing with fire if it chooses not to engage in the full spectrum of arenas available.
When the analysis of the referendum is written in the days, weeks and months ahead, I predict the failure of the Yes campaign on a mechanical level (rather than an ideological one) will come under a lot of fire. And rightly so.
UPDATE: No to AV's Jag Singh has revealed on Twitter that his campaign "has bought biggest 1-day-blitz online ad buy in UK political history 2day. Tens of millions of GOTV ads FB, Goog, blogs." You can read Amber's interview with Jag about the campaign here.