If an old political bore like me would rather eat my own spleen than enter into another pedestrian debate about AV, then I suspect the rest of the country looks at it all with complete indifference.
The trouble is that it has become a bit a totem pole for the tribes to dance around, with their respective witch doctors issuing curses and cures whenever the mood takes them. The truth is whichever side wins won’t make an awful lot of difference to the voters being able to kick out a discredited government. The vote is symbolic rather than making a real difference. I’ve already voted YES and would be delighted if they won. But I’m not going to run a warm bath and reach for the razor blades if it all goes tits up. The trouble is the right wing geeks will have thought that they have inherited the earth and demand a referendum on Europe. But there is a better chance of the former Archbishop of Bruges being made Minister for Child Protection.
What really matters on 5 May is whether Labour can successfully claim that they have got this government on the run and just how badly the Lib Dems do. And, if my gut instincts are right it will be a disaster rather than the expected catastrophe. If they gain more than a thousand seats they can claim victory. Anything less is a slap in the face.
I just don’t get the feeling of outrage and genuine malice that people had about the dying days of the Major administration. Nor the pure hatred that they had for Brown’s bunch. There seems to be a sad resignation that the cuts are going to happen whatever happens on 5 May. That no matter how many bleeding stumps are waved and no matter how many promises to slow things down are screamed there is an accepted universal truth; Labour and the greedy bankers screwed up and we all inevitably have to pay the bill.
And to make dear old Cleggy out as a wicked betrayer who has sold his birthright not even for a mess of pottage, just a mess, is pure Westminster hype. The sort of people who really despise him are labour trolls who scream with indignation that he didn’t keep Gordo’s Titanic afloat and not normal Lib Dem voters who just wanted to use him as a device to keep the Tories out. If you look at the polls, Clegg’s grass roots maybe unhappy, but they are not incandescent with rage. They’ll want to keep their candidates in the Town Halls.
There are three factors that could cause Labour serious heartache. The royal wedding. The death of bin Laden. The weather. There has already been some curtain twitching about the former. Peter Hain foolishly and inaccurately moaned that MiliEd had been airbrushed out of the proceedings. And even if he was, the public don’t give a toss.
But David Healey had the best point; it was a damn good time to bury bad news. And it was. What led to the furore in 9/11 was not the internment, but the crass, insensitive stupidity of Labour emailing this home truth to departments.
So the horror that may await Labour is resigned complacency. This country, even in the face of the most depressing times since the war, is more united and at ease with itself since the remarkable spectacle of pageantry and true love that burst onto our television screens on Friday. For a few weeks most people, with the exception of the likes of Laurie Penny, feel remarkably proud to be British. And if the sun continues to shine until election day, Cleggy might find himself with something to smile about. One thing is certain. There will be some surprises.
Comments
Adam Collyer / May 04 2011 1:12pm
Finally found your new site! Quite made my day.
Completely agree with you about the AV referendum (and I think we'll see a heavy victory for the No camp). Except that if there were a Yes vote, it would probably help UKIP quite a bit (giving Tory Eurosceptics the opportunity to vote UKIP 1 Tory 2 without "wasting their vote").
As far as the local elections are concerned, I think the Lib Dems are heading for a precipice - and anyone who has been involved in politics the last few years won't shed any tears if I'm right!