There have been many arguments offered to explain why people do or do not go out to vote. Non-voting is the most widely explained and is usually attributed to: not having the time; not seeing the vote or voting as important; lacking interest or knowledge; or lacking a serious choice. The interesting point that has emerged from recent by-elections is that turnout is unusually high. While the 40% may seem a derisory indictment on democracy, actually that is above the norm for a contest such as this. So how do we explain voting? If we look at the media portrayal of the contests, so assuming a weak media effect, we can link voting to the national position of the parties and the position of Brown as prime minister. Labour's position after the count, even when they have no chance, is used to suggest a whole range of attitudes possessed by the wider public; suddenly by-elections are made interesting. But to mobilise voters there must be a sense that the vote is important, all three by-elections have been close, this is empowering and gives the voters a sense of self-efficacy (turnouts are always higher in marginal seats also).

Glasgow East is a perfect example. The closeness of the polls, in fact the early SNP lead seems to have been reversed by Labour but with a lot of undecided voters makes the outcome very uncertain. There are also questions about whether Brown will or will not go if they lose what is currently a safe seat, for those who want him to and see this as the potential straw that breaks the camels back (or at least gives stalking horses the hump :>>) it may be seen as a way of making an impact on national politics (as opposed to sub-national/Scottish affairs only). The big threat or opportunity to both Labour and the SNP is not necessarily support but turnout. The polls, if they say anything, show there is a lot of support for both parties, but is that support sufficiently motivated to turnout on the day. Are they interested enough, are they certain they want a Labour or SNP MP, if the candidates do anything wrong in the meantime it could cost them dearly in this respect.

:idea: One thing to note though, Brown's tough, pro-peace neutrality shown during his visit to Israel and Palestine cannot hurt his standing and may have some effect on those who are pro-Labour but have doubts about Brown due to his image/media coverage.