The weight of expectations lie heavy on any political campaign but near-certain defeat (or victory) changes the dynamic in a number of ways beyond the obvious decisions about resources and funding.

A few commentators have already pointed out that the Tories certain defeat in the Glasgow East by-election confers a certain freedom on them in terms of how they campaign. That Cameron should choose the East End of Glasgow, of all places, to check his party’s centrist drift and make a plea for more moral rectitude suggests he’s happy to exploit that freedom — the message was clearly aimed above and beyond the residents of Shettleston and Easterhouse! With no expectation of victory the Conservative messages are insulated from the usual post-poll charge that ‘voters rejected’ them and so Cameron can exploit the platform the by-election provides without really risking much in terms of his overall project.

Labour have a different problem. As Jeremy Paxman remarked on Newsnight on Monday under normal circumstances a Labour-sponsored Christmas pudding could probably carry Glasgow East but faced with a buoyed and resurgent nationalist campaign and the current political climate victory isn’t the sure thing it should be. That, coupled with embarrassment over their selection difficulties, means Labour are having to campaign all the harder in a constituency that shouldn’t need the attention it’s now commanding.

It’s strange that the party facing almost certain defeat can be relaxed and confident in their campaigning while the one reasonably certain to win should have so many worries....